All previously held assumptions are now no longer relevant
It’s a time of deteriation and uncertainty that we struggle to comprehend. But all’s not lost, writes Dr Richard Shortt.
First and foremost, congratulations to Line of Defence, and all involved with it, for reaching the 10th anniversary milestone. Well done.
Goodness me, a lot of water has flowed under the proverbial bridge during those 10 years. What was happening back in 2016 that we can reflect upon now a decade later?
Well, front and centre, Donald Trump became president of the United States of America; the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union; Syria was embroiled in conflict; terror attacks occurred in Nice and Brussels; compliance with a nuclear deal resulted in sanctions being lifted from Iran; CO2 levels exceeded 400ppm for the year, considered one of the hottest on record; and there was a noted rise in popularism around the world. Some nostalgia there!
Since those days, we have endured through a global pandemic; the Americans and their allies withdrawing forces from Afghanistan and handing the country back to the Taliban; Russia launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine following its annexation of Crimea and insurgency in various Ukrainian border provinces; and climate change accelerating (according to reliable science).
“The US, under the current administration, is led by a man who delivers ‘flip-flop’ policy via social media, who attacks the foundations of relationships built over many decades, and who has an ego that is in need of constant affirmation and placation.“
Also, drones demonstrating they now play a pivotal role on modern-day battlefields; spending on defence forces increasing in NATO and non-NATO countries, while Finland and Sweden shed their decades-long neutrality to join NATO; Aotearoa New Zealand suffering terrorist mass-murders of truly staggering proportions, while just recently Australia also suffered terrorist mass murders at its iconic Bondi Beach; and now we watch a war on Iran by Israel and the US that has seriously constrained a major sea-lane for the delivery of energy and other important products to the world.
And, we must not forget, President Trump is back in office in the US for a second term.
AI is now ubiquitous, and it is thanks to it that in a matter of seconds I was able to provide the opening historical synopsis above. But that’s all. The rest – for better or worse – is me.
So, let me ask a question: Where does the world find itself today, and is it now a safer, fairer, more balanced place than it was in 2016?
In responding to the first part of the question, I am reminded of a phrase I read just recently that summarised the situation we are in as “all previously held assumptions are now no longer relevant”. Canada’s prime minister and Australia’s foreign minister have, along with others, shared similar sentiments. These are big statements, but I feel they are hitting the proverbial nail on the head.
What were some of those assumptions?
For Aotearoa New Zealand and Australia, the answer to the question cannot escape examination of the close intertwining both countries have engaged in with the US. On issues of defence and national security, for Aotearoa New Zealand, this has been a reconnection and rebuilding following the disconnection of the nuclear-free policy impacts of the 1980s, but for Australia the bonds go back to World War II. They are very deep and very complex.
When it comes to alliances and allegiances, my conclusion is that they have been tipped on their head. NATO, the EU, Mexican-American-Canadian trade agreements and ANZUS now appear to be of little importance to some, and in need of complete reconstruction according to others. I am also left wondering about newer alliances, such as AUKUS, struck when the current US regime was not in power, and when the UK was not so focused on the threat from Russia and major conflict in the Middle East, but more on rebuilding its global standing following Brexit.
The US, under the current administration, is led by a man who delivers ‘flip-flop’ policy via social media, who attacks the foundations of relationships built over many decades, and who has an ego that is in need of constant affirmation and placation. But, he is just the public face of the change. Behind him sit a number of very connected, often very rich and opinionated individuals who are interested in dismantling a world they do not agree with.
Russia has unleashed yet another seemingly unthinkable multi-year war in Europe, all based it seems on ego and enrichment. China continues to build military forces of substantial size and capability that can be viewed as equalling – even confronting at some point – what was once considered to be the most powerful military force the world had ever seen. And North Korea has nuclear weapons, while others aspire to emulate them.
So, back to the question, are we safer, fairer and more balanced today?
No. I strongly suggest otherwise. The world has become more fragmented with the loss of relationships, alliances, institutions, boundaries, rules and – I would argue – civility. These changes do not support safety. They support cracks and fissures in our world.
There is well supported evidence of untenable behaviours becoming accepted. Behaviours that are highly likely to be viewed by other bad actors as opportunities to undertake or advance changes to their own liking. We also see this trend in the actions and words of those closer to home who seek to gain societal change or political advantage by using social fragmentation to their advantage.
We are, I submit, in a time of less safety, growing unfairness and constant imbalance that we struggle to comprehend and counter. Safety, fairness, and balance (and common truths) come from strong foundations and structures. They come from institutions that are in the business of holding wrong-doers to account, which dedicate themselves to improving all lives, not just some, and which work collectively and collaboratively in those endeavours.
Is all hope lost? No, not at all.
Within the jumble that is our world there are beacons of hope for a return to stability – but a new stability, not the old style. These beacons appear out of the fog of wars and the carnage of discarded and trashed relationships. They are individuals, groups, citizenry, and truly brave souls who are prepared to take stands based on morals and principle; who are prepared to stare down fear and to show that it cannot be successful every time it is rolled out. They speak out against the propaganda and outright lies that are being fed to us all daily, and they offer alternatives.
Admittedly, we do need to be astute enough to recognise reliable information in today’s blizzard of words, images, and memes. A lesson from Finland is worth acknowledging here, whereby schools are actively teaching their students how to sift the information tsunami to identify reliable sources versus rubbish/entertainment/propaganda and outright lies.
We can also see examples of countries banding together to deliver good outcomes not just for themselves but for others too. They show us that might can be steadfastly resisted and stopped. They show us that we need to look to our own inventiveness, innovation, and people to find answers to problems that seem intractable and overwhelming.
The Ukrainians, Scandinavians and the EU all provide examples of such a collective mentality and strength, notwithstanding that they all face challenges and that the road is a bumpy one.
Aotearoa New Zealand and Australia must do the same. We have the bright minds and the capable people we need to achieve this. We have the inventiveness, innovation and capacity to stand steadfast in the face of bullies and events beyond our shores. What we must be prepared to do, however, is to adjust our thinking. “Never let a good crisis (or crises, as the case may be) go to waste”, as the saying goes, especially in a time when old assumptions no longer apply.
Both countries can, for example, look at the liquid fuel disruptions caused by the war against Iran and recognise that unlike the 1970s there now exists a proven, efficient and localised energy solution, electrification. The majority of our domestic household, industrial and land transport requirements can be met through smart use of modern technologies, such as solar PV panels (an Australian’s invention) capturing the free, abundant energy delivered daily by a very reliable sun.
Through leveraging other cheap, off-the-shelf energy creation solutions we can reduce our dependence on long, exposed shipping lanes and dangerously exposed power plants and fragile grids. At the same time we also help address the existential threat of climate change, whose more fierce and regular impacts we all feel. We just need to apply ourselves and encourage our politicians to be brave, strategic, and willing to embrace our future, not solutions from the past.
Finally, it would be wrong not to mention the lessons we are learning from the war on Ukraine by Russia. The Ukrainians have shown, and continue to show us, how a land with a smaller population can stand resolutely and defiantly against a larger aggressor.
Their lessons, I suggest, include relationships with diverse partners, not just one. It shows us the volume of materials and equipment needed to sustain prolonged resistance against a brutal invader. It shows us there are no safe zones away from frontlines anymore due to the reach of missiles and drones. It vividly shows us that uncrewed drones on sea, land and in the air help cause losses to an enemy – particularly where military, industrial or energy infrastructure is concentrated or exposed.
Critically, it shows us that localised innovation and creativity is vitally important as the ‘old war’ fighting equipment we are used to designing, building and deploying is thwarted by cheaper, technology-enhanced systems that were the things of science fiction just five years ago.
The change in battlefield conditions, requirements and approaches arising from Ukraine’s resistance to Russia has been truly staggering, but we must also not forget that this war passed its 12th anniversary in February of this year. The most recent five years of post-invasion warfare can dull us to the true expanse of this conflict. Do Aotearoa New Zealand and Australia have what it takes to stand against such a constant, drawn-out barrage? Do we have the political, societal and industrial resilience to weather such a storm?
Beyond the domains of politics, war and climate challenges, we must also now prepare for yet another great evolution of humanity that will see three elements collide in an epic way. Here I’m thinking of artificial intelligence, robotics and demographics. As populations age, and in some instances shrink, we will see more and more economic opportunities for the young vanish as our new technologies remove the need for agile minds, strong backs and nimble hands. These changes are both an opportunity and threat that our lands must strategically prepare for in ways I currently do not see unfolding.
Our Western economic and cultural systems are based on the concept of meaningful, productive work and social advancement. The belief that ‘my child’s life will be happier, more fulfilled, healthier and longer than mine’ is already fraying at the edges, and appears to be on a path to mythical status. Add to this climate-induced migrations and we have a challenge that the world has not experienced before in our lifetime.
Again, the old assumptions are being seen to no longer apply. New ones must replace them and be continually refreshed and refined.
For example, in the face of climatic changes rendering various populated areas of the world, including some of our Pacific neighbours, unliveable or sustainable, vast numbers of humans will have to move. Oceans, seas, borders, fences and politics will not, I suggest, continue to constrain and shape such movement.
The million-plus Syrian refugees we saw a decade ago fleeing to safer lands in Europe were but a glimpse of how such a wave of movement can overcome borders. Meanwhile, the numerically smaller movements of other refugees in Africa, areas of Asia and the Pacific (i.e. Tuvalu) graphically show us that housing, water, food, sanitation and cultural acceptance will be agenda-topping items in many parts of the world, and old assumptions on how such movements are managed just nostalgic memories in the minds of some.
How will domestic social cohesion survive these impending and, if we agree with the science, accelerating trends? I have no specific answers for this. None. Yet, in comparison to many of the current things that absorb political, cultural and day-to-day bandwidth, these are Everest-sized challenges, not the speed humps we all currently navigate and cogitate over.
In closing, geography and shared history dictate that Aotearoa New Zealand and Australia now exist as close, like-minded neighbours on the cusp of the largest concentration of human beings in the planet’s history (Asia), with all of the opportunities and challenges that creates in a politically fractious, technologically changing and climate-challenged world.
The two countries – and peoples – with the greatest personal investment and interest in our future successes are us. Now is the time to emulate the Scandinavian approach of cooperation, collaboration and coordination in aiming for a safer, fairer and more balanced world, leveraging our strengths, diminishing our exposures and capitalising on the need for all humans to dwell peacefully on a planet we cannot realistically leave and for which there is no redundant back-up.
I sincerely wish us all good luck.
