The case for an independent New Zealand national security think tank
An independent think tank needed to bridge the analysis gap between government and community, write Tim Hurdle and Ross Browne.
For decades, New Zealand’s foreign and security policy rested on a consensus born of a relatively benign strategic environment. We prioritised trade access, enjoyed the implicit security of our partnerships, and operated under the assumption that our geographic distance offered a natural buffer from global conflict.
Our current landscape of foreign policy analysis often relies on established orthodoxies or is constrained by risk aversion and perspectives from voices that are sometimes anchored in a past era.
There is a generational belief in an ‘independent foreign policy’ based on a misty-eyed interpretation of the ANZUS split and the nuclear-free ships ban – which manifests as opposition to the Western alliance.
That era is over. Today, we are witnessing a fundamental shift in the global order, characterised by multipolar competition, the erosion of the rules-based international system, and a rise in hybrid threats. We see daily cyberattacks and disinformation and the increasing use of AI by malign actors. Our Pacific neighbourhood is seeing increasing strategic competition.
“By operating as an independent entity, a new think tank can provide unbiased assessments, unencumbered by the political constraints that often limit government-funded research. “
New Zealand must navigate the volatile realignment of traditional alliances, unilateral actions and shifting allegiances. Our politicians have recognised to increase core defence spending, but there has been only limited debate as to the nature of that spend. Line of Defence is an important part of providing a forum for debate on how we enact change.
As the geopolitical landscape grows increasingly volatile, New Zealand’s policy responses must evolve. Recent consultations conducted by Museum Street Strategies show there is a clear strategic gap in our national discourse: the absence of an independent, dedicated think tank focused on foreign affairs and national security.
Elevating the National Debate
Currently, the formulation of security and defence policy is almost entirely concentrated within the government sector. While our public officials work diligently, our national conversation suffers from a lack of contestable, outside-of-government analysis.
Challenging the traditional orthodoxy is difficult, which is concerning, given the rapid changes as new technologies transform warfare.
To navigate the complexities of today’s emerging issues, such as the implications of AUKUS Pillar 2, the vulnerability of underwater infrastructure, or the strategic challenges in the Pacific, we require fresh, rigorous, and forward-looking research. This should embrace the knowledge of the wider community, often where the technological and mechanical expertise is held.
A dedicated, independent think tank would bridge this gap by providing:
- Contestable Policy Advice: Offering considered alternative policy options to government, thereby enhancing the quality of decision-making.
- A Clearer Strategic Voice: Actively advocating for New Zealand’s active participation in regional security and defending core democratic values, a position that commands broad public support but remains under-represented in current commentary.
- Global Connectivity: Serving as a conduit for international insights, fostering peer-to-peer engagement with the robust think tank ecosystems in the US, UK, and Australia, and ensuring New Zealand remains connected to global thought leadership.
A dynamic approach to our future
Museum Street Strategies has spoken with a number of parties across business, academia, and the policy community who support this concept and recognise its necessity. The model we propose is one of a lean, agile institution that leverages digital platforms to foster informed debate rather than being weighed down by legacy infrastructure.
By operating as an independent entity, a new think tank can provide unbiased assessments, unencumbered by the political constraints that often limit government-funded research. It would act as a vital resource for policymakers, the media, and the public, helping to build a more sophisticated understanding of the difficult choices our country faces.
A major focus would be on disseminating this research through specialist media. As we mark the 10th anniversary of Line of Defence, its role is becoming increasingly important to our national discourse. Ensuring that New Zealand is ‘headed to a safe harbour’ requires us to strengthen our capacity for critical, independent thought. We invite stakeholders and interested parties who share this vision to engage with us, as we seek to turn this proposal into a cornerstone of our national security landscape.
